We're well into the year and there is plenty to talk about. I'm trying to keep these emails to the highlights and either provide links for more info or if you come to any of the events in the 2025 calendar (see below) then you can dig into the details if you're keen.
In this month's edition:
- The good news story: helping Taitoko School
- All the 2025 coming events (join me and Ryan Hamilton this Monday evening and also our Annual Golf Tournament).
- Going for growth
- Let's fact-check Labour
- Head-to-head with Labour on Golden Visas and growth
- A summer round-up...
The Good News Story
We all need a bit of good news. Last year you might remember Newsroom wrote this article, shocked that I would help a local decile 1 school in Levin. I always fight hard for our community.
A week ago I visited the school to see the new crossing I fought for. They are so proud and so grateful. I'm proud to be able to keep clocking wins for our community. I'm already onto my next project for them. Watch this space.
Save the dates
It's a busy year so let's just get a few markers in the diary nice and early.
This Monday evening at the Ōtaki golf course will be a great night. The bar is open, Ryan Hamilton (MP for Hamilton) is a fantastic speaker. Please join us. No cost, just turn up from 7pm. Everyone welcome.
Our Annual Golf Tournament is back at Paraparaumu Beach Golf Club. We've got a few great initiatives like auctioning some super-stars to join your foursome. More to follow but you can register now. Details below.
- February
- 17 - Drinks, guest speaker, and short AGM, Ōtaki golf course, 7pm, no cost, special guest Ryan Hamilton MP for Hamilton
- 22 - Ōtaki Branch afternoon tea, 3pm. More details from Angela.
- March
- 28 - Members’ morning tea with Hon Mark Mitchell. Details to follow.
- Special dinner club fundraiser. Reply to this to enquire.
- April
- 7 - Annual Golf Tournament, $100 per player. Email Sam to register.
- May
- 1 - Levin movie night
- 9-11 - LNI regional conference (Rotorua)
- 12 - Super Blues (over 60s) morning tea
- Special under 60s drinks fundraiser
- June
- 6 - Ōtaki Mid-winter dinner
- 8 - Lower North Island (LNI) regional meeting (Wellington)
- Special dinner club fundraiser
- July
- 26 - Annual Day at the races, Ōtaki Maori Racing Club
- August
- 1-3 - National conference, Christchurch
- 15 - Annual soup and buns lunch, Waikanae
- Special under 60s drinks fundraiser
- September
- 20 - Levin dessert evening
- October
- 6 - Quiz night, Kāpiti
- Special dinner club fundraiser
- November
- 7 - Super blues morning tea
- 23 - LNI Christmas lunch, Palmerston North
- 29 - Levin Christmas lunch
- Special under 60s drinks fundraiser
- December
- 6 - Kāpiti Food Fair - join us at our stall
Going for Growth
We all know that over the last six years our economy got trashed by too much spending, too much debt, and there is nothing productive to show for that. But I also understand that you want to know what we have done and what we will do to fix it.
What have we done?
- We changed the rules for the reserve bank and cut wasteful spending making some tough calls. As a result, inflation is down to where it should be a year ahead of official predictions,
- That led to mortgage rates coming down for the first time in three years,
- Fruit and vege prices went down last year, not up. First time in ages that has happened,
- Our work to target the housing crisis has seen rents and house prices flat, rather than the astronomical rises we saw under Labour.
What's next?
- We're going for growth. We need more money if we're going to pay down our debt and be able to afford the quality public services we need like health and education,
- We are hustling on the world stage, securing trade deals like those with UAE, the Gulf States, as well as passing legislation to enact the EU FTA. This is part of our plan to double the value of our exports within ten years,
- We're attracting new investment and talent, and the international connections they bring. You might have read about our plans for digital nomads and visas for those who bring millions in investment,
- We're growing a talented workforce at home, and this starts with our work in schools: no cell-phones; an hour of maths, reading and writing; structured literacy and structured maths; an updated curriculum with specific year-by-year targets; and reducing the number of teacher-only days in term time,
- We're investing in quality infrastructure, like the new expressway from Ōtaki to north of Levin, and supporting new solar energy in Foxton.
- Finally, we need innovation at home and from abroad. Having now seen the science, the modernising of GE laws is a real positive and just one example of this.
We are totally focussed on growth. It is our ticket out of Labour's economic mess.
Let's fact-check Labour
It's tough out there. Our economy is turning the corner but we've still got some speed bumps to get over before we get into 3rd gear, let alone top gear. But what's the go with Labour saying things are worse that it was under them? I thought it might be good to fact check some of these so this month I'm looking at unemployment, which is currently around 5%.
Labour is blaming high unemployment (over 5%) on our Government and our policies. Let's look at the numbers.
At the pre-election update issued by Treasury we had the following forecasts for unemployment: it was to be 5.4% in 2025. the current forecast (HYEFU) is 5.4% for 2025. It was to be 4.8% for 2026, HYEFU has it at 4.8% for 2026. It was to be 4.6% for 2027, and HYEFU has it at 4.5%. We are tracking slightly better than was predicted under Labour, who, when they were in government, were quick to point out that their long-term forecasts (above) were below the long-term average of 5.8%. They thought 5.4% was them doing well!! But we know, and economists know, that high spending leads to high inflation, which leads to high interest rates, which leads to high unemployment. This is the historical pattern all over the world pattern (and the pattern we saw under the last three consecutive Labour Governments).
High unemployment is due to Labour's mismanagement and it was forecast back then and that's exactly what has played out.
Our Government is taking sensible steps to cut wasteful spending, reduce inflation (already at target levels) and interest rates so that over time our economy grows, and unemployment drops.
It is absolutely outrageous that Labour have been shown to have caused inflation and unemployment, and now they stand back and watch on and pretend it's not their fault; they criticise us while we fix their mess! This isn't about hiding from the facts or pointing the finger, this is us facing up to the facts and fixing what every independent economist can see Labour caused.
Head-to-head with Labour
Every week Mike Butterick (MP for Wairarapa) and I take turns at going head-to-head with someone from the Labour front bench on the Newstalk ZB political chat with Nick Mills. If you haven't heard it, the latest edition is here. We cover polls, tractors, visas, superannuation and more. Flick me back an email and tell me if you think I won, or Ginny Anderson...
A summer round-up
It's been a busy start to the year. I've been at so many different events: The Horowhenua AP&I show, Muaūpokotanga day with Iwi and about 400 teachers, the Medieval Market in Levin, the Waikanae Garden Trail, Rotary Club's Young Leaders programme, visiting the Horowhenua Health Shuttle, meeting with KiwiRail, supporting a US Embassy event, Waitangi Day celebrations in Kāpiti and Horowhenua, meeting with the EU Ambassador, visiting local schools in Kāpiti and Horowhenua, the Te Horo hall opening, and much more. I've shared a few photos in this email.
You're welcome to invite me to your upcoming event, to meet with your group, club or organisation, or to visit your school or business. Send me an email, but please note my diary often fills up one or two months in advance.
That's it for this month.
I hope your year has started well and I look forward to seeing you at one of our events very soon.
Best wishes,
Tim
Tim